Breeding population nearly identical to 2024, but dry prairie conditions likely suppressed duck production
BISMARCK, NORTH DAKOTA — Duck numbers are steady, but a sharp decrease in the number of May ponds casts serious concern about the strength of the upcoming fall flight.
The breeding population of ducks in the Traditional Survey Area was estimated at 33.98 million which is just below last year’s estimate of 33.99 million, according to the 2025 Waterfowl Population Status report released today by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
When ducks returned to the prairies this spring, they encountered dry conditions. May pond counts, a key indicator of breeding habitat conditions and potential production, declined 19% from the previous spring. Pond counts in the North-Central United States — which includes Montana and the Dakotas — dropped 34%, while the prairie and parklands regions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba were down 5% from 2024. The 2025 May ponds estimate of 4.18 million is 20% lower than the long-term average.
“Duck production is not likely to be good this year,” said Dr. Frank Rohwer, president and chief scientist of Delta Waterfowl. “When you look at the wetland conditions maps from May, they show it was very dry everywhere across the prairie pothole region except eastern South Dakota. The best hunting seasons occur in wet years when the fall flight has more young ducks in the migration.”
The total of just shy of 34 million ducks is 4% below the long-term average in the survey which has been conducted annually since 1955. The survey is used to set hunting regulations for the following year, so in this case, for the 2026-2027 season. Based on these results, waterfowl hunters will again enjoy a liberal season framework next season.
Mallards are estimated at 6.55 million, a 1% decrease from 2024, but 17% below the long-term average. More mallards settled in the Canadian prairies this spring, but at numbers still well below the long-term average.
“The survey shows a bit of a redistribution of mallards from last year when a higher percentage settled in the Yukon and Northwest Canada,” Rohwer said. “In southern Saskatchewan, mallards had a little better water this spring, but it was still dry there.”
Among other puddle duck species, gadwalls, wigeon, shovelers, and pintails increased, while both blue-winged teal and green-winged teal decreased.
Wigeon, estimated at 3.19 million, increased 9% and sit at their highest breeding population since 2016.
“Wigeon seem to be defying logic again,” Rohwer said. “They breed in the prairies and the Arctic. I have to believe the Arctic is producing more ducks than we thought.”
Pintails increased to 2.24 million, bouncing 13% higher than 2024. One-third of the breeding pintails settled in the Alaska/Yukon Territory/Old Crow Flats region, with another one-third in Central and Northern Alberta/Northeast British Columbia/Northwest Territory.
“I think there’s new evidence that pintails in the Arctic are reproducing better than we gave them credit for,” Rohwer said. “We used to think when the prairies were dry, they’d go to the Arctic and not breed. With the prairies in a drought, the Arctic and boreal forest regions seem to be producing enough ducks to maintain the populations.”
As a result of a change in harvest models, waterfowl hunters throughout most of the United States are allowed to shoot three pintails daily this season but be sure to check regulations for the state you are hunting.
Gadwalls continue to thrive, increasing 6% to 2.41 million, a figure that’s 17% above the long-term average.
Blue-winged teal declined 4% to 4.32 million, their lowest level since 2004. Bluewings were down 18% in the Eastern Dakotas, where more than a third of the population breeds during a typical year. Several consecutive dry springs across key nesting areas in the Dakotas and Saskatchewan have hurt production, Rohwer said.
Green-winged teal, which breed primarily in boreal forest regions, declined 15% to 2.55 million, however, the population remains 16% above the long-term average.
“If there’s good news for southern hunters, it’s that a lot of gadwalls settled in the eastern Dakotas, and green-winged teal are above the long-term average,” Rohwer said. “Hunters in Louisiana and Texas will still have greenwings and gadwalls.”
Among diving duck species, canvasbacks and redheads increased, while scaup populations dropped 10% to 3.68 million. Canvasbacks are estimated at 690,200, the most since 2017. Redheads, which breed primarily in the same semi-permanent wetland habitat as canvasbacks, jumped 17% to 918,200.
Results for the Eastern Survey Area, ducks that migrate down the Atlantic Flyway, show 1.14 million mallards, essentially no change from 2024. Black ducks are down 6% but remain 11% above the long-term average. Ring-necked ducks were estimated at 756,000, a 9% increase, while green-winged teal were down 24% to 342,000. Goldeneyes also declined by 25%, while mergansers increased 1%. Wood ducks in the Atlantic Flyway are estimated at 900,000, similar to the long-term average.
Habitat conditions in the Eastern Survey Area were deemed “good to excellent,” so duck production should be strong.
In contrast, duck production on the prairies is likely to be fair to poor. Rainfall in late May across North Dakota and eastern Saskatchewan provided hope, which mostly had evaporated by June.
“The May rains likely helped support a moderate number of nesting ducks,” said Mike Buxton, waterfowl programs director for Delta Waterfowl. “However, much of the precipitation in North Dakota and Saskatchewan arrived too late, and the gains were short-lived as heat, wind, and a lack of more rain dried up wetlands in June. Localized areas of Alberta received rain in June, and they stood out as rare bright spots.”
Ducks — like duck hunters — are resilient, Rohwer said.
Delta Waterfowl continues to help ducks thrive throughout North America, continually expanding the organization’s innovative Habitat Conservation and Duck Production programs. All of Delta’s programs and initiatives, including Duck Distribution, are aligned to deliver more ducks and duck hunting opportunities.
“We hope everyone has an excellent waterfowl hunting season making memories with their families and friends,” Rohwer said.
Delta Waterfowl is The Duck Hunters Organization, a leading conservation group working to produce ducks and ensure the future of duck hunting in North America. For more information about how Delta delivers results for ducks and duck hunters, visit deltawaterfowl.org. Media can contact Dr. Frank Rohwer at[email protected].
The Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey and the Waterfowl Status Report are the result of a collaborative effort conducted annually by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Canadian Wildlife Service, and the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific Flyway Councils.
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