Bird flu could be on the cusp of transmitting to humans, according to disease forecasters. Recent animal outbreaks of a subtype called H5N1 have been particularly troubling to scientists, and the warning of avian influenza’s potential jump to humans remains ongoing.
Although human infections from H5N1 have been relatively rare, there have been a little more than 900 known cases globally since 2003. Nearly 50% of these cases have been fatal, a mortality rate about 20 times higher than that of the 1918 flu pandemic. If the worst of these rare infections ever became common among people, the results could be devastating, according to a report by The Conversation.
Viewed from this deep time perspective, it becomes evident that H5N1 is displaying a common pattern of stepwise invasion from animal to human populations. Like many emerging viruses, H5N1 is making incremental evolutionary changes that could allow it to transmit between people. The periods between these evolutionary steps present opportunities to slow this process and possibly avert a global disaster. –The Conversation
A potential spillover to humans could be a tricky enterprise. However, scientists claim that in order to be successful in its transmission, the pathogen must have the right set of molecular “keys.”Those keys must be compatible with the host’s molecular “locks” so it can break in and out of host cells and hijack their replication machinery. Because these locks often vary between species, the pathogen may have to try many different keys before it can infect an entirely new host species. For instance, the keys a virus successfully uses to infect chickens and ducks may not work on cattle and humans. And because new keys can be made only through random mutation, the odds of obtaining all the right ones are very slim.
Is It Here? Bird Flu Human-to-Human Transmission
There have been a small number of human cases, most of which have occurred among poultry and dairy workers who worked closely with large numbers of infected animals.
Pathogen transmission can be modeled in three stages. In Stage 1, the pathogen can be transmitted only between nonhuman animals. In stage 2, the pathogen can also be transmitted to humans, but it is not yet adapted for human-to-human transmission. In Stage 3, the pathogen is fully capable of human-to-human transmission. –Ron Barrett, CC BY-SA
We may not have too much longer until this makes its jump to humans, or it might never. Who knows at this point? This is dragging out unlike the COVID-19 scamdemic, which the ruling class jumped on immediately and tried to stop the spread of a common cold.
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