Summary:
- A Sunday night Axios report on a US-proposed 45-day ceasefire has, by Monday morning, been rejected by Iran: diplomatic talks are “absolutely incompatible with ultimatums, crimes, and threats to commit war crimes,” the Foreign Ministry said.
- Iran rejects apparent US fresh proposal as Israel strikes large petrochemical plant at South Pars.
- There’s been another extension of what had been a 10-day deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz – a deadline that was initially set to expire on Monday evening. Now Trump says Iran has until 8 pm on Tuesday.
- Trump warned Iran on Easter Sunday to ‘Open the Fuckin’ Strait’ or “you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”
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Israel Attacks Petrochemical Plant At South Pars Gas Field
Iranian state media is reporting a Monday attack that targeted the South Pars petrochemical facility in Asaluyeh. “A few minutes ago, the sound of several explosions was heard from the South Pars Petrochemical complex in Asaluyeh,” according to the Fars report.
Also, Tasnim describes an attack on two utility companies in Assaluyeh, which have cut off the electricity supply to petrochemical units. The same outlet revealed the following details:
- Petrochemical plants in Asaluyeh, including Jam and Damavand, were targeted.
- Mobin and Damavand companies, which supplied electricity, water, and oxygen to the Assaluyeh petrochemical plants, have been targeted.
- Pars Petrochemical is safe and has not been damaged.
Israel has announced it was behind the attack, per the Washington Post. Does this violate Israel’s prior pledge to Trump not to take unilateral action against South Pars?
Israel attacked a key petrochemical plant at Iran’s massive South Pars natural gas field and killed a top Revolutionary Guard commander, putting into question the negotiations aimed at getting the U.S. and Tehran to reach a ceasefire.
Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed what he called “a powerful strike on the largest petrochemical facility in Iran” that’s responsible for half of the country’s petrochemical production. Israel’s military spokesperson, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, said there would be “no immunity” for Iran as talks progress.
In Israel, Iranian missiles have continued to fall at a steady pace, with Israel’s emergency services reporting that at least 28 impact sites in central Israel on Monday, describing that cluster munitions have resulted in damage.
Ramat Gan, Bnei Brak, and Givatayim were struck, and a man in his 40s was “moderately wounded” – according to local reports.
Iran Rejects Any Ceasefire That is Temporary: ‘Normalization of War Crimes’
Iran rejected a temporary ceasefire in the US-Israeli war, stating it would give adversaries time to regroup and prepare for continued conflict; however, a foreign ministry statement did not specifically reference the 45-day proposal being reported by Axios.
“We are calling for an end to the war and for preventing its recurrence,” foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA. Analysts have long understood that Tehran’s retaliation on Gulf states and Israel has been so fierce because it seeks to deter any potential future attack. Iranian leaders fear that without a proper and final resolution, the country will just get attacked again, be it a year from now or even several years down the road.
The foreign ministry also on Monday stated that Iran has prepared a response to US demands to end the war and will announce it “when necessary,” referring to the 15-point list conveyed by Washington to Tehran through Pakistan, which Baghaei reiterated is “extremely excessive and unusual and illogical.” He further reminded the world that Tehran has a “very bitter experience of negotiating with the US.” The idea of talks at this moment remains “absolutely incompatible with ultimatums, crimes, and threats to commit war crimes,” Baghaei continued.
Once again, an avalanche of headlines on ‘negotiations’ were issued hours before markets open Monday morning…
Separately, Iranian Armed Forces spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari stated Monday that if attacks on civilian targets continue, Iran’s retaliation will expand significantly and losses will be “several times greater,” according to Tasnim.
Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his French counterpart on Monday, related to Trump’s threats to wipe out civilian infrastructure, “This threat amounts to the normalization of war crimes and genocide.”
Fresh Axios Report of US-Proposed 45-Day Ceasefire
With a potential globally catastrophic escalation looming on Tuesday, Middle East mediators are communicating with Iran and the United States about a proposed 45-day ceasefire, Axios reported Sunday evening. The ceasefire is being positioned as the first of a two-phased deal, with the second phase being a negotiated, permanent end to the war that Israel and the United States started with a surprise attack on Februaty 28 amid ongoing negotiations.
The slim ray of hope comes after President Trump issued a profane Easter Sunday threat to make life miserable for 90 million Iranians, whom he just weeks ago promised to liberate: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.”
In addition to vitriol, Trump’s social media posts also brought an extension of what had been a 10-day deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz — a deadline that was initially set to expire on Monday evening. Now Trump says Iran has until 8 pm on Tuesday. In the interim, Trump has scheduled a 1 pm news conference on Monday. They described it as a press conference “with the military,” suggesting it may be focused on celebrating the US Special Forces’ retrieval of a downed US Air Force weapons officer over the weekend. Held in the Oval Office, it may be open to only a small subset of the White House press corps.
The combination of the ever-so-slightly encouraging Axios report and the Trump presser could make for the latest of many market whipsaws since the war started. Trump told Axios that there are “deep negotiations” ongoing with a “good chance” of success. On the other hand, he was quick to add that “if they don’t make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there.” Trump’s threats to lay waste to Iran’s civilian infrastructure have elicited Iranian promises to retaliate in kind across the Persian Gulf. In a video issued Sunday, Iran threatened “complete and utter annihilation” of OpenAI’s $30 billion Stargate data center in Dubai.
While the precise nature of the negotiations is unclear, Axios reported that Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators are at the center of the conversations, and that there have been “text messages sent” between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Significantly, the outlets’ sources said mediators couldn’t foresee a full re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz until a final deal is inked.
- The mediators want to see whether Iran could take a partial step on [nuclear enrichment and Strait of Hormuz navigation] in the first phase of the deal. They are also working on steps the Trump administration could take to give Iran guarantees that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.
- The Iranian officials made clear to the mediators they don’t want to be caught in a Gaza or Lebanon situation where there is a ceasefire on paper, but that the U.S. and Israel can attack again whenever they want to. — Axios
Going into these latest conversations, the gap between US and Iranian demands was enormous. Among other things, Trump is demanding that Iran weaken the ballistic missile program it now uses twice to retaliate against US-Israeli aggression, and to cease any nuclear enrichment, even though Iran is otherwise privileged to do so as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (a status Israel lacks). Iran has demanded reparations for the damage caused by Israeli and US attacks, the closure of US bases in the region, the lifting of all sanctions, and a hard-wired guarantee against more rounds of intermittent US-Israeli attacks. Regarding the latter demand, some have envisioned the passage of a US law that would cut off aid to Israel if it attacks Iran again.
Speculation that Pilot Rescue was a cover for Uranium Ground Op
Beyond the potential for escalation via attacks on civilian infrastructure, there’s also the potential for a US commitment of ground forces. Trump may feel emboldened about proposed operations to seize Kharg Island and/or strait-adjacent territory following the dramatic weekend rescue of a downed F-15E crew member — which itself brought the first known deployment of soldiers on Iranian soil. (We should note that there’s a growing number of veterans and other people — pointing to factors like the involvement of C-130 cargo craft and the location of their makeshift airfield — theorizing that the rescue was actually a failed attempt to capture Iran’s cache of 60%-enriched uranium.)
Meanwhile, there’s little to indicate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is interested in de-escalation.
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