Posted on Monday, November 4, 2024
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by Herald Boas
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0 Comments
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With only days to go, it is almost and thankfully over. Perhaps each side has one PR gambit left, but with tens of millions of votes already cast, a “surprise” has much less value than it might have had in previous cycles.
In Europe, whose media favors the U.S. Democrat Party ticket almost entirely because it does not have Trump on it, I am told by very reliable continental sources there is fear and pessimism that “The Don” will triumph. But considering the European Union’s recent sharp turning to the right, I suspect there would be considerable cheering as well if Donald Trump wins.
Assuming the outcome will be decisive and immediately clear, there will be a period of necessary discussions afterwards about media bias, the role of mega-campaign spending, and voting procedures. If the outcome is unresolved with a period of recounts, charges of cheating, lawsuits, and widespread protests, then any serious post-election discussions will be postponed, and the nation will face a crisis probably even more serious than in 2000 and 2020 when the results were delayed.
In 2012 and 2022, Republicans went into the final election weekend quite optimistic, but came out of it quite disappointed with the actual results on the following Tuesday. Some GOP partisans fear a similar overconfidence in 2024. Republican and independent voters will need to turn out heavily to the polls for the Trump-Vance ticket to avoid any unexpected loss.
One very encouraging development this cycle has been the decision of many conservative voters to cast their ballots early (as many Democrats have done in recent cycles). But as savvy political observers have pointed out, this phenomenon should not be exaggerated. More practically positive developments this cycle are the use of so-called ballot harvesting by conservatives, and the widespread deployment of election observers, lawyers, and judges by Republicans to deter any attempts at election cheating.
Each party base, it needs be said, is going to turn out to vote for their party’s ticket. Some anti-Trump Republicans and moderate Democrats are going to switch sides, vote for third party candidates, or stay home, but it seems clear that each party base is now energized. As almost always, independent and other undecided voters will be the difference in the so-called “swing” states. Those voters appear to be trending to the Republican ticket at the end, most pollsters are saying, and many pundits are contending, but pollsters and pundits have been wrong on occasion in the past.
It has been a campaign cycle in many ways unlike any other. The so-called rules of campaign engagement have been broken, changed, or ignored as perhaps not ever before. The partisan sides seem more savagely divided than in any cycle in memory. Considering the challenges and confrontations the nation faces from adversaries and competitors around the globe, the election outcome seems more critical than ever before.
Those who argue there is not much difference between the parties and their tickets have no credible argument in 2024. Conservatives and liberal-progressives have sharply differing visions about economics and fiscal policy, education, government regulation, taxes, the role of government bureaucracy, crime and public safety, and Middle East and other foreign policy.
The very heavy voter dissatisfaction with “the direction of the country” is unanimously reported by all public polling. Economic anxiety is widespread. Parents are besieged. Our armed forces are weakened and demoralized.
With so much at risk, the world’s oldest continual representative democracy goes to the polls.
Herald Boas is a writer for AMAC Newsline.
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