Suffice to say, that while Israel remains in peril, Iran is at a precipice. The bellicose, terror-centric, Islamic Republic began – on October 7, 2023 – escalating conflict with Israel through Hamas, Hezbollah, and from Iranian soil. Israel, predictably, responded. Whether Iran imagined a lesser response or victory, they miscalculated. If Iran takes the next step, Israel could forever alter Iran.
To imagine a world – or Middle East – without radical Islamic Iran seems fiction or a dream sequence, but Iran is no stranger to revolutions, saw them in the 1920s, 1950s, and 46 years ago, when Iran was then a prosperous, Western aligned monarchy, against communism and theocracy.
Then, in February 1979, with a weak U.S. president (Jimmy Carter) at the helm, Iran’s modernizing government was overthrown – by a radical Islamic leader, Ayatollah Khomeini. Again, suffice to say, that this was a revolution that created more chaos, torture, terror, and corruption than ever imagined.
Four and a half decades later, Iranians now strain at their radical Islamic leash, resist the bit with growing frequency, and cannot stand oppression by a clutch of ruthless, cultish, religiously possessed, yet also conventionally armed radical leaders, who regularly use their arms to kill Iranian citizens.
Today, Iran’s leaders have no interest in becoming part of a broad, mutually respecting, pluralistic “community of nations ” or in arriving at peace with neighbors. They aspire to rule their neighbors.
Like other centralized, ideologically blinded regimes which terrorized their own and sought to control neighbors, Hitler’s Germany, Stalin’s Soviet Union, Franco’s Spain, Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, Iran’s leaders have seized the moment, pushed into Biden-Harris’ weakness.
What Iran forgot – still seems not to understand – is that Israel, while a U.S. ally, does not take orders from Biden-Harris. Israel protects Israel, and knows another lesson: When an enemy reels, pursue.
That is how Iran’s leaders, this little clutch of cocky, unaccountable terrorists and war provokers, miscalculated. That is also why their miscalculations could multiply, and prove fatal, even without a change in U.S. policy, ending appeasement, back to deterrence, with clear U.S. support for Israel.
As Iran talks retaliation, a continued war with Israel, and disrespects the U.S., thinks they can get a nuclear weapon and threaten delivery, they are missing stark realities.
First, their own people are fed up, more interest in iPhones than ayatollahs, are done with the Islamic Revolution, just want free speech and life, not more oppression and death. Go figure.
Second, Israel has turned a page, broken glass, thrown down, sent 140 combat aircraft over Iran, knocked out Iran’s air defenses, sparing Iran’s oil, infrastructure, and people. Israel seems to care more about Iranians than Iran. That said, Israel could now vaporize Iran’s leadership, the door is open.
Third, while Iran possesses a robust conventional capability, including 3000 ballistic missiles, and offensive cyber capacity, launching either in force could prove suicidal, even before the U.S. policy changes. In short, Iran stands at a precipice, back down or amp up, and watch what happens.
If Iran’s next step is not to back off, not modest, not some face-saving act, but is as aggressive as other recent actions, Israel – and the U.S. – may alter Iran forever. Revolutions still happen, and Iran is no stranger to them. History teaches, that revolutions in Iran tend to be fundamental. Could Iran’s Islamic terror collapse under its own weight? We will see, but miscalculations seem to be in vogue.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC. Robert Charles has also just released an uplifting new book, “Cherish America: Stories of Courage, Character, and Kindness” (Tower Publishing, 2024).
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