The race for quantum computing and supercomputer superiority is the most important technology battle of the 21st century – and the United States is losing to Communist China.
Rajeeb Hazra, the CEO of tech company Quantinuum, warned earlier this fall that China is now outspending the U.S. two to one on developing quantum computers and supercomputers, threatening to place every American industry at a fatal disadvantage in competition with Chinese companies while also posing major national security risks. With President-elect Donald Trump taking office in just a few weeks, catching up to China on supercomputer development and quantum computing looks to be a critical area of concern.
While often used interchangeably, supercomputers and quantum computers are actually two distinct technologies.
Supercomputers are the pinnacle of classical computing, designed for extreme processing power and speed. These machines consist of thousands or even millions of interconnected processors working in parallel, capable of performing trillions of calculations per second. They are used for tasks requiring massive computational resources, such as climate modeling, molecular simulations, cryptographic analysis, and astrophysical calculations.
Supercomputers rely on traditional binary systems (0s and 1s) and excel at deterministic, linear problem-solving, making them essential for processing large datasets and executing highly complex algorithms in fields like scientific research, finance, and artificial intelligence.
Quantum computing, on the other hand, represents a fundamentally different paradigm, leveraging the principles of quantum mechanics to perform calculations.
Quantum computers are able to perform many calculations at once, potentially solving problems that would take even the most advanced supercomputers billions of years. They hold promise for breakthroughs in areas like cryptography, optimization, drug discovery, and materials science.
Currently, supercomputers are the more practical solution for most real-world problems. Quantum computing is still in its infancy, with significant challenges in scalability, stability, and error correction.
However, the potential for quantum computing is truly awesome – and terrifying in the wrong hands. A bad actor with a quantum computer could hack even the most secure network in seconds. An enemy of the United States with a fleet of quantum computers could shut down the entire American power grid in minutes without quantum computing technology in the United States securing the networks that keep the grid online.
The supercomputer concept originated in the United States, where the term was first used in 1929 at Columbia University. The Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer developed later, enhanced the capabilities of U.S. Army artillery in 1942 and played a significant role in securing victory in World War II.
In the late 1970s, Western Europe and Japan joined the supercomputer race, but results were on the scale of decades rather than years.
American taxpayers’ generous investment helped establish four national supercomputing centers in the mid-1980s. Those supercomputers, capable of performing 800 million calculations per second, were located at the University of California, San Diego, Cornell University, Princeton University, and the University of Illinois.
Professor Junqiang Xiao, who taught Computer Sciences at the National University of Defense Technology from the 1970s to the early 1990s, told me in an interview that Japan surpassed other countries in supercomputing in the latter half of the 20th century by “integrating supercomputers with artificial intelligence to create a new type of machine.” In 1993, a Japanese supercomputer became the most powerful in the world, surpassing models in the United States.
China was a relative latecomer to supercomputer research but caught up quickly. In 2005, the National Defense University in Changsha developed the first high-performance 64-bit stream processor for scientific applications.
This processor powered the world’s first low-cost, high-energy-efficiency machine two years later, Tianhe-1. It ranked 5th in the world, falling behind faster machines from Japan.
The United States set a new record in 2012 and regained the top global spot with the Sequoia computer, built at the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
But in 2016, China took the lead after developing the Sunway Taihu Light machine using domestically produced processors. By then it was clear that China was relying heavily on research and trade secrets from the United States and the West to form the foundation of its supercomputer programs.
Three years later, America regained its position as a leader with the two most powerful computers in the world, Summit and Sierra, built by IBM.
But now China has re-taken the lead in supercomputer technology, a development that should be cause for concern for American leaders. This year, Chinese military scientists at the National University of Defense Technology built the world’s most energy-efficient computer, the Tianhe Exa-node Prototype. According to experts in the field, Tianhe Exa-node gives China a significant edge in the field of Artificial Intelligence.
“There are nation states that are saying ‘this is the way to go in the future’ and there are some that are ignoring it or underestimating it, to the point that there is a disparity of investments across nation states,” Hazra told The Telegraph. “When you put a geopolitical kind of covering on that, there is a real chance of this underestimation hurting national security and even industrial security.”
Leading specialists, including U.S. supercomputing expert Jack Dongarra, agree that China’s rapid advancement over just two decades is a “stunning situation,” as he stated in an interview with The Financial Times. China’s supercomputing advancements have played a significant role in the country’s advancements in other critical fields, including electric vehicles, renewable energy, manufacturing, shipbuilding, mineral processing, and weapons development.
Supercomputers are also critical in the development of missile defense systems, managing elements from ground interceptors to radars to remote sensors in space. Researchers are now even working on sensors that can “self-heal” using quantum computing technology.
Unsurprisingly, the stocks of leading companies specializing in or utilizing supercomputers and quantum computing have seen continued growth. Clearly, the leadership in this field is of prime strategic importance for the United States from both an economic and national security standpoint.
Professor of Mathematics and Computer Sciences Joachim von Püntener, a former technology advisor to the Austrian Chancellor, told me in an interview that supercomputers and quantum computers are “an investment the U.S. government ought to make for the country’s economy, self-preservation, and defense.”
“This race paints a fascinating image of a creative, relentless human effort moving mountains of unresolved problems that can unleash creativity that paves the way to a better life for all,” von Püntener added.
By all accounts, that is a race every American has a vested interest in winning.
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
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