Campaign season is over, and Election Day is here. As the results begin pouring in this evening, here are the key developments to watch for.
The Swing State Tally
Kamala Harris is currently favored in states totaling 226 Electoral Votes, while Trump is favored in states totaling 219 Electoral Votes. That means Harris likely needs 44 additional votes to get to the magic 270 number, while Trump likely needs 51.
Those votes will likely come from the seven swing states: Pennsylvania (19 votes), North Carolina (16 votes), Georgia (16 votes), Michigan (15 votes), Arizona (11 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), and Nevada (6 votes).
Of those states, Trump heads into election night slightly ahead in all but Wisconsin and Michigan in the RealClearPolitics average, but each state is within the margin of error.
Big Surprises
There have been a few big surprises in each of the last several presidential elections. In 2020, it was Biden’s victory in Georgia. In 2016, Trump shocked the pundit class by winning the “blue wall” states of Michigan and Wisconsin. In 2008, Obama won Indiana and North Carolina.
With polls showing a close contest this year, big surprises for either candidate could prove even more decisive.
On Trump’s side of things, a victory in New Hampshire, New Mexico, Minnesota, or Virginia is not out of the question. Harris leads by just 3.5 points in New Hampshire, 6.7 points in New Mexico, 4.8 points in Minnesota, and 5.8 points in Virginia.
If Trump were to win Minnesota or Virginia in particular, with 10 and 13 Electoral Votes, respectively, it would give the former president several more paths to victory. The fact that Harris is polling nearly five points behind Biden’s 10-point victory in Virginia four years ago is an ominous sign for the vice president’s camp.
For Harris, Iowa presents perhaps the best chance for an upset. After Trump cruised to victory in the Hawkeye state in 2016 and 2020, the famed Des Moines Register poll showed the vice president leading Trump 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters late last week – although other polls have shown Trump with a healthy lead.
If Harris can win Iowa, it would likely mean she had overperformed with white voters, and white women in particular – a positive sign for her outlook in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Senate Tipping Point
Between the House, Senate, and White House, Republicans appear to be heading into election night with the best chance to win control of the Senate. The GOP is defending just 11 seats, with eight expected to be easy holds for the Republican incumbents. Democrats, meanwhile, are defending 23 seats, with only 11 rated as solid holds.
Democrats currently hold a 51-49 edge in the Senate. With Republican Jim Justice expected to easily pick up the retiring Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, the GOP needs a net gain of just one more seat to flip control of the chamber.
With so many endangered incumbents, Democrats’ best hope for retaining control is to pull off a surprise upset against Rick Scott in Florida or Ted Cruz in Texas – or both. If Democrats can manage this unlikely feat, they may be able to maintain their majority by winning most or all of the other toss-up races.
If Scott and Cruz win, all attention turns next to Ohio and Montana, the two most likely Republican flips after West Virginia. If Bernie Moreno can beat Democrat Sherrod Brown or Tim Sheehy can defeat Democrat Jon Tester, Republicans will have a 51-49 majority.
Without flipping any Republican seats and after losing West Virginia, Democrat incumbents will need a clean sweep of the other toss-up races to create a 50-50 tie – meaning that control of the Senate would come down to the winner of the presidential race via the vice president’s tie-breaking vote.
House Tipping Point
Heading into Election Day, RealClearPolitics rates 192 seats as “safe,” “likely,” or “lean” Democrat, while 201 are “safe,” “likely,” or “lean” Republican. That leaves 42 toss-up races for each party to reach the 218 seats necessary for a majority. Of those 42 seats, 23 are currently held by Democrats, while 18 are currently held by Republicans.
Five House seats in New York are considered tossups this cycle, meaning the Empire State could provide an early indication of how House Republicans will fare nationally.
The Second and Seventh Districts in Virginia could also provide early indications for what kind of night it could be for both parties. In the Virginia 2nd, first-term incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans is looking to fend off a Democrat challenger, while Democrat Eugene Vindman (brother of Trump impeachment witness Alex Vindman) and Republican Derrick Anderson are squaring off to replace Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is retiring to run for governor.
Both districts are toss-up suburban districts – as are so many other swing districts throughout the country. A strong performance from the Democrat or Republican candidates here bodes well for that party in dozens of other swing districts.
The other state to watch later in the evening is California, also with five toss-up races. Three additional races in the Golden State are also rated as “leans GOP.” If either party wins most or all of these toss-up races, it will likely be on its way to a large House majority.
Ballot Initiatives
Six red and purple states – Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and Nebraska – will consider ballot initiatives that would allow abortion until the point of fetal viability (about 22 weeks). After several setbacks for the pro-life movement at the ballot box in recent years, these measures will be another test.
Florida, North Dakota, and South Dakota will also vote on whether to legalize recreational marijuana, while Nebraska will vote on legalizing medical marijuana. 38 states currently allow medical marijuana use, while 24 allow recreational use.
Kentucky and Nebraska will vote on measures to expand voucher programs allowing families to use public education dollars for public school alternatives in two important tests for the school choice movement.
The one thing that seems certain this Election Day is that the nation is at a crossroads. Regardless of the outcomes of these contests, the country will be headed in a new direction once all the votes are counted.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.
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